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Questor
Shaven Goodness
TeamWarfare Vet
TWL Contributor
01-19-2011 07:48 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
For Aria: Yup, speculators are driving up commodity costs through ETFīs. Suuuuurrrreeee, maybe thats why the U.S. mint is selling record amounts of physical silver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-mint-reports-january-silver-sales-hit-26-year-high


Not meaning to throw in a monkey wrench here, but many citizens are playing the role of speculator too. For example, my father bought several thousand dollars' worth of gold coins as a hedge against the economy. Get enough people to do that and it will have an impact on the price of gold.

I mention this because not only do I constantly see on TV and hear on the radio the "buy gold now!!!1!111! it's a solid investment" commercials but I also hear the "don't listen to them! silver is just as good and a lot cheaper" commercials too.

William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 08:10 AM / profile

Hereīs the short version of the commodity run up: Oil is going up in price due to peak oil and loose monetary policy by the fed. Other commodities are going up in price because you need oil to produce them, loose monetary policy, and because of various natural disasters that are affecting supply. Precious metals are going up because of loose monetary policy and because people such as your father and countries around the world that are losing faith in the global economy and the USD.

Investing in gold because of a non existent recovery and an ongoing crisis is not speculation, itīs a flight to safety. With that said, most of the demand for precious metals is coming from foreign countries and central banks, not from mass hoarding by individuals. Silver isnīt stored by central banks but it is very popular among individual investors and has huge industrial demand as well. Both are slowly replacing the dollar as the international reserve currency as Ben Bernanke destroys itīs remaining worth.
Post edited by questionmark at 1/19/2011 11:57:15 AM
DirtyMitten
KERRPOW!
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TWL Contributor
01-19-2011 08:12 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Oil is going up in price due to peak oil


William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 08:22 AM / profile

Originally posted by: DirtyMitten
Originally posted by: questionmark
Oil is going up in price due to peak oil




Itīs a better explanation than "ZOMG SPECULATORS!"
subroutine
TeamWarfare Vet
TWL Contributor
01-19-2011 09:53 AM / profile

Originally posted by: DirtyMitten
Originally posted by: questionmark
Oil is going up in price due to peak oil




I feel like questionmark belongs on fox with a chalk board behind him rerouting every crisis to Hitler and Stalin Peak Oil.
=>PX<=Major
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 10:16 AM / profile

Has anyone watched the documentary called Fuel? It is fascinating and I'd recommend watching it.
samUwell
TeamWarfare Vet
TWL Contributor
01-19-2011 10:19 AM / profile

Originally posted by: =>PX<=Major
Has anyone watched the documentary called Fuel? It is fascinating and I'd recommend watching it.
just added to my queue.

my list of documentaries is getting large. now that football is coming to an end.... CRIES... i will have some time to watch my list.
=>PX<=Major
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 10:38 AM / profile

Originally posted by: samUwell
Originally posted by: =>PX<=Major
Has anyone watched the documentary called Fuel? It is fascinating and I'd recommend watching it.
just added to my queue.

my list of documentaries is getting large. now that football is coming to an end.... CRIES... i will have some time to watch my list.


I am the same way, I have a ton of documentaries to watch!

Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 03:25 PM / profile

Originally posted by: Questor
Originally posted by: questionmark
For Aria: Yup, speculators are driving up commodity costs through ETFīs. Suuuuurrrreeee, maybe thats why the U.S. mint is selling record amounts of physical silver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-mint-reports-january-silver-sales-hit-26-year-high


Not meaning to throw in a monkey wrench here, but many citizens are playing the role of speculator too. For example, my father bought several thousand dollars' worth of gold coins as a hedge against the economy. Get enough people to do that and it will have an impact on the price of gold.

I mention this because not only do I constantly see on TV and hear on the radio the "buy gold now!!!1!111! it's a solid investment" commercials but I also hear the "don't listen to them! silver is just as good and a lot cheaper" commercials too.


exactly right, now anyone and everyone can speculate, AND THEY DO.

too bad that wasnt written in questionmark's textbook, which was written 3 years ago or more when small players were a bucket of piss in the ocean.

yes, a lot of silver coins are bein sold, record numbers..u think it's patriotic? no, they are the ONLY US COINS ***NOT*** LOSING VALUE DUE TO PRINTING!!

EDIT: AND....AND....SPECULATORS ARE NOT THE BIG BILLIONAIRES ANYMORE...THE FUNDS...THE FUNDS!!!!!! THOSE ARE SPECULATORS TOO...BECAUSE THEY ***HAVE TO*** PURCHASE MORE IF THE GET MORE PARTICIPANTS IN THE FUND...DUUUHHHH!!! IT A LIKE A FREAKING MUTUAL FUND BUT FOR METALS, MATERIALS, FOODSTUFF ETC.

YOUR BRAIN IS HILARIOUS.
Post edited by Aria Giovanni.pZ at 1/19/2011 3:27:51 PM
Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 03:44 PM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ

Simon Black is a douchebag that uses this stuff to pay for his living. Go sign up for one of his seminars down in Panama on how to become an escape artist. It's common sense shit what he says everywhere. People who pay for that stuff need to have their money taken from them...and so it happens that way.


I donīt need, nor do I pay for, his advice. I just read his newsletter for his commentary on current events.


YOU DO THAT? PFFFT!

EVEN QUESTOR'S "TOON THAT!" THREADS ARE BETTER THAN THAT GARBAGE.
RedBeards
Competition Manager
NA Game Operations
Battlefield Series

01-19-2011 10:08 PM / profile

You know questionmark, you could just make it easier on yourself and admit that you're wrong about something you chose to make a big deal about.

That, or you could argue that Friedman and a team of economists actually went back in time after they saw the stagflation of the 1970s to write their own hypotheses that would later come true and smack the Keynesian economists on the head.

I'll let you "re-read" the article and come to your own conclusion. Even just skimming it I can see that he's laying the framework for what would later be called stagflation.

I guess Paul Krugman got it right after all.


enissRT
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 10:09 PM / profile

Originally posted by: Mockery
Can someone please explain to me how deflation is a bad thing for the average American?
...


I personally believe that some inflation/deflation cycles are a good thing. But there are a few different reasons people dislike deflation, or would prefer constant minimal inflation.


EVIL REPUBLICANS (Reagan, Greenspan) dislike deflation because it causes real wages to increase and the stock market to fall. They really think that if they coddle the investors and fuck the workers long enough then eventually the rich will shit out a utopia. These tend to be the people who have read too much Rand and think we would all lite ourselves on fire if it wasn't for their greedy leadership.

MORON MIDDLE CLASS (Any business channel commentator) dislike deflation because it causes their home prices and stock portfolios to fall. Making them feel less rich. So they stop going deeper into debt. So they stop buying useless crap. These tend to be the people who really would lite themselves on fire without the television to tell them what to do.



Both groups viewpoints are common in the media. But they came about after the proinflation mindset was already pretty well set in among most economists. To understand that mindset you need to change how you think about inflation and go out to a macroeconomics picture.


Think about inflation/deflation in terms of money supply. Inflation means the nations money supply is expanding faster than goods and services. Deflation means that the money supply is shrinking relative to goods.

When thought about in those terms it doesn't take much deep economics to understand why many economists fear deflation.
If the nations money supply is shrinking, then obviously many people and institutions have less money. If you have less money then you spend less money. If everyone is spending less money then no one is trying to expand. If no one is trying to expand then no one is borrowing. If no one is borrowing then the money supply shrinks. And then your caught in a very bad cycle.

If this cycle happens extremely quickly you get a depression.

If it is allowed to happen slowly you get Japan for the last decade.

While people on the Internet talk a lot about the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe, the FED finds the fear of long term stagnation like Japans to be a far more likely scenario. So they are trying to create inflation to stop that from happening.




Post edited by enissRT at 1/19/2011 10:11:46 PM
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-20-2011 05:13 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Allen
You know questionmark, you could just make it easier on yourself and admit that you're wrong about something you chose to make a big deal about.

That, or you could argue that Friedman and a team of economists actually went back in time after they saw the stagflation of the 1970s to write their own hypotheses that would later come true and smack the Keynesian economists on the head.

I'll let you "re-read" the article and come to your own conclusion. Even just skimming it I can see that he's laying the framework for what would later be called stagflation.

I guess Paul Krugman got it right after all.



You see what you want to see because it fits in with your narrative, just like Krugman. That paper is about monetary policy and the role of the fed. He never even mentions the Phillips Curve and only talks about inflation and deflation in passing as tools that central banks can utilize. "laying a framework" is just code for "this isnīt what I thought it was about." I was gonna drop the topic and let you save face but if youīre going to keep pushing this then you need to make sure you have something on topic that you can point to, otherwise everything you say about this or other papers is just spin meant to misrepresent history.
Questor
Shaven Goodness
TeamWarfare Vet
TWL Contributor
01-20-2011 06:25 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Originally posted by: Allen
You know questionmark, you could just make it easier on yourself and admit that you're wrong about something you chose to make a big deal about.

That, or you could argue that Friedman and a team of economists actually went back in time after they saw the stagflation of the 1970s to write their own hypotheses that would later come true and smack the Keynesian economists on the head.

I'll let you "re-read" the article and come to your own conclusion. Even just skimming it I can see that he's laying the framework for what would later be called stagflation.

I guess Paul Krugman got it right after all.



You see what you want to see because it fits in with your narrative, just like Krugman. That paper is about monetary policy and the role of the fed. He never even mentions the Phillips Curve and only talks about inflation and deflation in passing as tools that central banks can utilize. "laying a framework" is just code for "this isnīt what I thought it was about." I was gonna drop the topic and let you save face but if youīre going to keep pushing this then you need to make sure you have something on topic that you can point to, otherwise everything you say about this or other papers is just spin meant to misrepresent history.




I'm no economist, but he provided you a very good source that proves he's write and you still debunk what he's saying as if it's imaginary.

Questor
Shaven Goodness
TeamWarfare Vet
TWL Contributor
01-20-2011 06:31 AM / profile

I've had enough of the peak oil nonsense, so I just emailed a hedge fund manager for his opinion on the topic. I'll post his response verbatim when I get it.

Disclaimer: he's very busy and travels quite a lot globally. There's just as good a chance that he'll tell me yes or no without backing up his answer as there is him telling me he has no time to answer. Regardless, I'll post the email in its entirety.

William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-20-2011 07:01 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Questor




I'm no economist, but he provided you a very good source that proves he's write and you still debunk what he's saying as if it's imaginary.


Iīm supposed to accept that a paper clearly about monetary policy and the role of central banks (itīs in the title) that makes no mention of the Phillips Curve and doesnīt even talk about high unemployment alongside high inflation is supposed to be about stagflation and a direct attack on the Phillips Curve?

Explain to me in what world Allenīs argument makes sense.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-20-2011 07:03 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Questor
I've had enough of the peak oil nonsense, so I just emailed a hedge fund manager for his opinion on the topic. I'll post his response verbatim when I get it.

Disclaimer: he's very busy and travels quite a lot globally. There's just as good a chance that he'll tell me yes or no without backing up his answer as there is him telling me he has no time to answer. Regardless, I'll post the email in its entirety.


Youīre getting really desperate.
Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-20-2011 09:05 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Originally posted by: Questor
I've had enough of the peak oil nonsense, so I just emailed a hedge fund manager for his opinion on the topic. I'll post his response verbatim when I get it.

Disclaimer: he's very busy and travels quite a lot globally. There's just as good a chance that he'll tell me yes or no without backing up his answer as there is him telling me he has no time to answer. Regardless, I'll post the email in its entirety.


Youīre getting really desperate.


what Questor fails to realize that no one knows more than you on this, not even the Saudi Oil Minister or the entire Royal Saudi Family combined.

seriously.

questor, u think that will do any good? you just appear desperate for validation now.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-20-2011 09:09 AM / profile

Nope, itīs just that my experts are better than his experts.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2011/01/you-dont-have-to-take-my-word-for-it.html
Bibimbap
Kimchee!
TeamWarfare Vet
01-20-2011 09:16 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Nope, itīs just that my experts are better than his experts.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2011/01/you-dont-have-to-take-my-word-for-it.html


From the article:

BRAINNSSsss....
Post edited by Bibimbap at 1/20/2011 9:16:27 AM
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